2019.08.20
作者：龙兴春，国观智库高级研究员，西华师范大学印度研究中心主任
译者：刘仁雪，国观智库实习研究员，外交学院硕士
巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗
Pakistan is prepared to "fight to the end" over the Kashmir issue if necessary, Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Wednesday during a speech from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. "I don't want war but it's clear now that they [India] don't want to talk," Khan said. Pakistan's 73rd Independence Day was celebrated on Wednesday as "Kashmir Solidarity Day," so as to express support for the people of Kashmir.
巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗周三在巴基斯坦控制的克什米尔地区发表讲话时表示，如有必要，巴基斯坦将在克什米尔问题上“战斗到底”。他说：“我们不希望战争，但现在很明显他们（印度）不想对话”。上周三，人们将巴基斯坦的第73个独立日作为“克什米尔团结日”加以庆祝，以表达对克什米尔人民的支持。
India unilaterally revoked the special autonomous status of India-controlled Kashmir on August 5, thus turning the region into alleged Indian territory. Khan's words were in response to India's move and expressed Pakistan's opposition and anger.
印度于8月5日单方面撤销了印控克什米尔地区的特殊自治地位，将该地区划为所谓的印度领土。伊姆兰·汗的言论是对印度此举的回应，并表达了巴基斯坦的反对和愤怒。
On Thursday, cross-border skirmishes between Pakistan and India broke out, killing at least three Pakistani and five Indian soldiers, according to reports. Such skirmishes are unavoidable, but Pakistan would not launch a large-scale war. Thus, Pakistan's current moves are all political and diplomatic. Military measure is not an option.
据报道，周四，巴基斯坦和印度之间爆发了小规模冲突，造成至少3名巴基斯坦和5名印度士兵死亡。这种小规模冲突是不可避免的，但巴基斯坦不会发动大规模的战争。因此，巴基斯坦目前的行动都是政治和外交的。军事手段并没有列入选项。
Pakistan wants to own the whole Kashmir, but it is hard to realize the ambition. Consequently, Pakistan is taking an intransigent attitude in words and politics, but the country is still restrained in action. Khan needs to say strong words to pacify the Pakistani people.
巴基斯坦希望拥有整个克什米尔，但很难实现这一雄心壮志。因此，巴基斯坦在言论和政治方面采取了强硬态度，但该国仍在行动中受到限制。伊姆兰·汗需要用激昂的言辞来安抚巴基斯坦民众。
The revocation of the special autonomous status of India-controlled Kashmir has been a long-term strategic purpose of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During the 2019 India general elections, the BJP had already pledged to scrap Kashmir's special status. The Modi administration's move won wide support in the BJP and in the whole Indian society. Even in the Indian National Congress, India's main opposition party, many people support Modi's move. Now that the Modi administration has carried out its promise, it is unlikely that India will revoke the decision.
撤销印控克什米尔的特殊自治地位一直是印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的印度人民党（BJP）的长期战略目标。在2019年印度大选期间，人民党已经承诺废除克什米尔的特殊地位。莫迪政府的举动赢得了人民党和整个印度社会的广泛支持。就连主要反对党印度国民大会党，许多人也支持莫迪的举动。既然莫迪政府已经履行了承诺，印度就不太可能撤销这一决定。
India's move was only aimed at the India-controlled Kashmir and did not cross the Line of Control (LoC). However, as the Kashmir disputes are yet to be resolved, India's unilateral move is irresponsible and may further escalate disputes between India and Pakistan. Besides, residents in Kashmir are mostly Muslims. After India's decision takes effect, many Hindus may enter Kashmir, which may trigger opposition from local Muslims and ignite long-term violent conflicts in the region. It may also lead to opposition from other Islamic countries.
印度的行动仅针对印控克什米尔地区，并没有越过控制线（LoC）。然而，由于克什米尔争端尚未得到解决，印度的单方面行动是不负责任的，可能会进一步加剧印度和巴基斯坦之间的争端。此外，克什米尔的居民大多是穆斯林。在印度的决定生效后，许多印度教徒可能会进入克什米尔，这可能引发当地穆斯林的反对，并引发该地区的长期暴力冲突。这也可能引发其他伊斯兰国家的反对。
As for China-India relations, India's move will neither change the LoC on China-India border, nor affect China or China's sovereignty. China's attitude toward the Kashmir issue is generally neutral. China does not want to see an armed conflict between India and Pakistan, and we hope that the two countries can resolve their disputes peacefully. India is always against any third-party mediation in this regard. In the end, only India and Pakistan can eventually resolve Kashmir disputes.
至于中印关系，印度此举既不会改变中印边界的控制线，也不会影响到中国或中国的主权。中国对克什米尔问题的态度总体上是中立的。中国不希望看到印巴之间的武装冲突，我们希望两国能够和平解决争端。在这方面，印度始终反对任何第三方调解。最终，只有印度和巴基斯坦才能最终解决克什米尔争端。
